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The third set with James Park

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  • The third set with James Park

    Another interesting article from James Park for bow-international

    An investigation unsefully only possible with direct access to the database of Word Archery.
    My attention has won that little things you can read between the lines.
    I have spend a lot of time last year to find out how to calculate the score probabilty of a given archers skill level. The user manual of ArtemisLite App was very helpful for that.
    By the way I found also the solution how to calculate the probabilities of winning a set any number of arrows.
    So I am curious about the announced article if the results match mine.

    Let´s say Brady Ellison has an average skill level of 107 for the period 2016-2018 and Sjef van den Berg 104.5.
    Then the set scores probabilities for 70 meters are like the article:

    Click image for larger version

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    For each set Brady has a probability of 43% to win that set in a head to head with Sjet. Sjet himself gets a 32% probability and for the rest of 25% there will be an equal.
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    Same both archers at a indoor match will change the probabilties:
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    The probability for an equal set score is much more higher.
    James Park examines whether the third set is critical to recurve competition

  • #2
    Off topic:
    I posted this in the forum Target and Indoor Archery, but I can´t see the tread there. Any idea why? Now with the first reply it is on the list of threads on the sub forum.

    On topic:
    When the pobabilities for one set are known like the example above, it is possible to calculate the pobabilities for each archer to win a hole match.
    In case of the match result would be 6:0 the only way to get is that one archer wins three sets in a row. The probability for archer A will be 43% x 43% x 43% = 8%; For Archer B it is 3.3%.
    In case the result is 6:2 all possible ways to get this set points must be considered and add together for each archer. That could be awkward, imagine all ways to set points 5:5 including the run-off-arrow.
    Last edited by b_der_k_te; 5th April 2019, 10:38 PM.